Everyone seems to have a view on who they want to win – but, despite blanket news coverage and a glut of opinion and comment from all corners of the world, it remains difficult to ascertain which way it will go.
Unless you look closely at the data… In a recent study conducted with a colleague in Switzerland, I developed a model to demonstrate how and when ‘charisma’ can help leaders and in doing so influence the result of contests such as Presidential elections.
We analysed data from the last 25 US elections and looked at two main factors – the state of the US economy and the ‘charisma’ of each candidate. One key discovery was that a candidate’s charisma appears only important to voters when the state of the economy is unclear. If the economy is perceived to be either good or bad, then the charisma of the candidates doesn’t matter.
So – what does this mean for the 2016 race? Well, our analysis of Clinton and Trump’s nomination speeches show that Trump is slightly more charismatic that Clinton. Couple this with the sluggish nature of the current US economy and all the indicators point to a Trump win come November.
However, there is some comfort for all the Democrats out there hoping for a second Clinton administration. I believe that the unique nature of this race, and specifically the two candidates involved (Clinton as the first woman candidate and Trump as, well…Donald Trump) means that this is still a very tough race to call.