Who will win the upcoming U.S. presidential election?

My co-author, John Antonakis, and I have developed a forecasting model that captures the psychological processes that shape how we select and evaluate leaders.
First, people tend to hold leaders responsible for broader outcomes—in presidential elections, this means voters often credit or blame the incumbent candidate or their party for the state of the economy.
Second, we all have a mental picture of what an ideal leader looks like, and charisma plays a key role in this. The more charismatic a candidate seems, the better their chances of winning.
In addition to these two factors, incumbency also play in an important role in determining election outcomes and the incumbent typically has an advantage.
We built on Ray Fair’s economic model from Yale, adding a measure of candidate charisma to account for these key factors and we predict the electoral college vote. In fact, this model has correctly predicted 25 of the last 27 U.S. presidential elections, a 92.59% success rate!
So, what do we predict for this election? It’s going to be a close one, and everything may hinge on whether Harris can capitalize on the incumbency advantage. Check out the video below for all the details and our prediction for the electoral college!